← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Feb 7, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: W. Haslberger
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 45% | 2.14 |
| Preußen Münster win | 28% | 3.46 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.60 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV +0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Preußen Münster +0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.81 |
| Under | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Lukas Frenkert · Preußen Münster |
| 45' | ⚽ | Davie Selke · Hamburger SV |
| 70' | 🟨 | Sebastian Schonlau · Hamburger SV |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jean-Luc Dompé · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marc Lorenz · Preußen Münster |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hólmbert Aron Friðjónsson · Preußen Münster |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lukas Frenkert · Preußen Münster |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Davie Selke · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Preußen Münster | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 |
| venue | Preußen-Stadion |
| 4.00 |
| coach days | 1864.00 | 98.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1456.48 | 1573.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.93 | 22.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.43 | 0.69 |
| league points | 21.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 5.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.83 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.14 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.14 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |