← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 1, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Gerach
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 54% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.94 |
| Ulm win | 22% | 4.47 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ulm −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf −0.75 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.63 |
| Under | 41% | 2.38 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 13' | ⚽ | Aaron Keller · Ulm |
| 15' | ⚽ | Dawid Kownacki · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 19' | 🟨 | Romario Rösch · Ulm |
| 21' | 🟨 | Myron Van Brederode · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 27' | 🟨 | Philipp Strompf · Ulm |
| 52' | ⚽ | Oliver Batista Meier · Ulm |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Dawid Kownacki · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 76' | 🟨 | Tim Christopher Oberdorf · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 89' |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 21 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 0 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Ulm |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Merkur Spiel-Arena |
| 🟨 |
| Giovanni Haag · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bastian Allgeier · Ulm |
| 90' | 🟨 | Felix Higl · Ulm |
| coach days | 1096.00 | 31.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1531.71 | 1466.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.59 | -6.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.71 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| league points | 30.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.67 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.04 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |