← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 26, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: E. Weisbach
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ulm win | 45% | 2.12 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.25 |
| Regensburg win | 25% | 3.96 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg −0.5 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Ulm −0.5 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over | 43% | 2.29 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Christian Kühlwetter · Regensburg |
| 15' | 🟨 | Tom Gaal · Ulm |
| 23' | ⚽ | Semir Telalović · Ulm |
| 34' | ⚽ | Semir Telalović · Ulm |
| 45' | ⚽ | Semir Telalović · Ulm |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Oliver Batista Meier · Ulm |
| 79' | ⚽ | Semir Telalović · Ulm |
| 90' | ⚽ | Noah Ganaus · Regensburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ulm | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| coach days | 25.00 |
| venue | Donaustadion |
| 117.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1458.20 | 1293.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.74 | 1.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 64.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.55 |
| league points | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 8.02 | 8.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 0.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.00 | -1.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.69 | -0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | -1.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |