← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 14, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Alt
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 51% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.76 |
| Ulm win | 24% | 4.17 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV +0.5 | 51% | 1.89 |
| Ulm +0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.69 |
| Under | 43% | 2.23 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Bakery Jatta · Hamburger SV |
| 21' | 🟨 | Dennis Chessa · Ulm |
| 34' | ⚽ | Aaron Keller · Ulm |
| 41' | 🟨 | Semir Telalović · Ulm |
| 41' | 🟨 | Daniel Elfadli · Hamburger SV |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marco Richter · Hamburger SV |
| 49' | ⚽ | Davie Selke · Hamburger SV |
| 68' | 🟨 | Daniel Elfadli · Hamburger SV |
| 68' | 🟥 | Daniel Elfadli · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 | Max Brandt · Ulm |
| 90' | 🟨 | Miro Muheim · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ulm | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Donaustadion |
| coach days | 1262.00 | 43.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1464.47 | 1550.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.90 | -16.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | 1.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| league points | 15.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| state index | -0.68 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |