⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Hannover 3–2 Ulm

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 7, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Bauer

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover win60%1.61
Draw24%4.04
Ulm win16%5.94

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ulm −153%1.84
Hannover −147%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.88
Under48%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Semir Telalović · Ulm
55'⚽Semir Telalović · Ulm
60'⚽Hyun-ju Lee · Hannover
70'🟨Jonathan Meier · Ulm
71'⚽Nicolò Tresoldi · Hannover
81'⚽Nicolò Tresoldi · Hannover
87'🟨Kolja Oudenne · Hannover
90'🟨Lars Gindorf · Hannover
90'🟨Phil Neumann · Hannover
90'🟨Tom Gaal · Ulm

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
23Shots8
8On target3
7Corners2
9Fouls10
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHannoverUlm
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.05—
box share (last 5)0.670.63
cards avg (last 5)1.403.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHeinz von Heiden-Arena
coach days6.001255.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.05—
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-6.00-2.80
corners against avg (last 5)9.805.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.802.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.882.39
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.06
dominance (last 5)0.420.39
elo1488.411472.31
elo momentum (last 5)-28.01-4.75
eye test v10.33-0.35
eye trend v1-0.49-0.03
first sub minute (last 10)55.6054.30
form points (last 5)4.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.34
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.30—
keeper form v10.770.74
league points23.0015.00
league rank7.0016.00
matches since blank7.002.00
matches since clean sheet5.002.00
matches since win4.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0076.40
possession avg (last 5)42.0042.60
rest days7.005.98
scorer concentration0.140.22
season ppg1.531.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.00-4.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.009.80
skill v1-0.73-0.57
sot against avg (last 5)5.804.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.303.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.60
state index-0.43-0.47
sterile dominance v1-0.99-0.23
threat rate (last 10)0.310.26
threat rate (last 3)0.280.20
threat rate (last 5)0.310.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.20