← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 1, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Schwengers
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ulm win | 36% | 2.72 |
| Greuther Furth win | 36% | 2.68 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Ulm +0 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.94 |
| Under | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ (pen) | Julian Green · Greuther Furth |
| 32' | 🟨 | Niclas Thiede · Ulm |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sacha Banse · Greuther Furth |
| 45' | 🟨 | Niko Giesselmann · Greuther Furth |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Semir Telalović · Ulm |
| 54' | 🟨 | Bastian Allgeier · Ulm |
| 59' | 🟨 | Aaron Keller · Ulm |
| 64' | 🟨 | Marco Meyerhofer · Greuther Furth |
| 67' | 🟨 | Luka Hyrylainen · Ulm |
| 75' | 🟨 | Philipp Strompf · Ulm |
| 86' | 🟨 | Philipp Muller · Greuther Furth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ulm | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Donaustadion |
| coach days | 1249.00 | 30.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1475.94 | 1403.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.71 | -50.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 50.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.63 |
| league points | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 8.02 | 8.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.65 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.50 | -1.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |