⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Hertha 2–2 Ulm

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 23, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Weisbach

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hertha win62%1.54
Draw22%4.41
Ulm win15%6.28

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hertha −152%1.89
Ulm −148%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.68
Under43%2.27

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'🟨Marten Winkler · Hertha
6'⚽Ibrahim Maza · Hertha
33'🟨Philipp Maier · Ulm
38'⚽Semir Telalović · Ulm
52'⚽Derry Scherhant · Hertha
55'🟨Semir Telalović · Ulm
59'⚽Maurice Krattenmacher · Ulm
72'🟨Max Brandt · Ulm
76'🟨Márton Dárdai · Hertha
76'🟨Lucas Röser · Ulm
88'🟨Florian Niederlechner · Hertha
90'🟨Jonjoe Kenny · Hertha
90'🟨Maurice Krattenmacher · Ulm

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
14Shots13
6On target5
4Corners5
13Fouls11
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHerthaUlm
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.540.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.00—
box share (last 5)0.660.65
cards avg (last 5)3.803.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOlympiastadion Berlin
coach days175.001241.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.15—
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.04
corner diff avg (last 5)2.40-5.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.608.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.002.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.912.47
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.04
dominance (last 5)0.540.33
elo1461.151474.61
elo momentum (last 5)7.73-22.47
eye test v11.11-1.08
eye trend v1-0.050.05
first sub minute (last 10)50.5055.60
form points (last 5)7.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.341.37
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.10—
keeper form v10.600.78
league points17.0013.00
league rank12.0015.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet7.000.00
matches since win2.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.0078.00
possession avg (last 5)49.6042.00
rest days14.0014.00
scorer concentration0.250.29
season ppg1.311.00
shot diff avg (last 5)1.60-8.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.008.40
skill v10.58-0.46
sot against avg (last 5)2.604.40
sot for avg (last 10)6.203.60
sot for avg (last 3)6.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.402.40
squad age25.08—
state index-0.21-0.55
sterile dominance v1-0.020.04
threat rate (last 10)0.270.29
threat rate (last 3)0.260.23
threat rate (last 5)0.280.19
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.60