← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Nov 1, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Prigan
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ulm win | 36% | 2.75 |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 35% | 2.79 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.30 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ulm +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
| FC Schalke 04 +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.80 |
| Over | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Janik Bachmann · FC Schalke 04 |
| 22' | 🟨 | Lennart Stoll · Ulm |
| 47' | 🟨 | Paul Seguin · FC Schalke 04 |
| 50' | 🟨 | Marcin Kamiński · FC Schalke 04 |
| 65' | 🟨 | Maurice Krattenmacher · Ulm |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ulm | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| venue | Donaustadion |
| coach days | 1219.00 | 31.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 1.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1477.37 | 1412.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.12 | -25.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| league points | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 6.27 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | 0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.69 |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |