← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 27, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Storks
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt win | 58% | 1.65 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.99 |
| Ulm win | 18% | 5.51 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Ulm −0.75 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.84 |
| Under | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Fraser Hornby · Darmstadt |
| 18' | ⚽ | Aaron Keller · Ulm |
| 30' | 🟨 | Fraser Hornby · Darmstadt |
| 60' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Vukotić · Darmstadt |
| 62' | 🟨 | Dennis Chessa · Ulm |
| 70' | 🟨 | Romario Rösch · Ulm |
| 80' | 🟨 | Max Brandt · Ulm |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | Ulm |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| coach days | 56.00 | 1214.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.77 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1427.77 | 1477.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.30 | 3.22 |
| eye test v1 | 1.16 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 55.22 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| league points | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 8.83 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.56 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.14 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |