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Braunschweig 1–1 Preußen Münster

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 27, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Schwengers

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig win50%1.93
Draw26%3.80
Preußen Münster win24%4.03

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig −0.551%1.93
Preußen Münster −0.549%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.65
Under42%2.33

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Rayan Philippe · Braunschweig
16'⚽Jorrit Hendrix · Preußen Münster
75'🟨Kevin Ehlers · Braunschweig
82'🟨Joel Grodowski · Preußen Münster
90'🟨Fabio Kaufmann · Braunschweig
90'🟨Jano ter Horst · Preußen Münster

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
9Shots8
2On target4
2Corners4
8Fouls16
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBraunschweigPreußen Münster
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.22
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.10—
box share (last 5)0.560.75
cards avg (last 5)4.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEintracht-Stadion
coach days361.001761.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.19
corner diff avg (last 5)2.60-2.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.206.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.804.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.102.36
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.11
dominance (last 5)0.460.40
elo1361.191447.60
elo momentum (last 5)24.07-12.69
eye test v10.53-0.30
eye trend v1-0.01-0.32
first sub minute (last 10)57.2052.11
form points (last 5)7.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.60—
ht lead rate (last 20)0.30—
keeper form v10.500.65
league points7.007.00
league rank17.0018.00
matches since blank6.007.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.2072.20
possession avg (last 5)43.8037.80
rest days8.838.06
scorer concentration0.330.25
season ppg0.780.70
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.00-5.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.0012.20
skill v1-0.78-1.26
sot against avg (last 5)3.605.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.60
state index-0.15-0.50
sterile dominance v1-1.24-1.23
threat rate (last 10)0.310.31
threat rate (last 3)0.320.33
threat rate (last 5)0.340.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.80—