← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 20, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Bacher
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 48% | 2.01 |
| Ulm win | 26% | 3.79 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.65 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ulm +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Karlsruhe +0.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.72 |
| Under | 44% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Nicolai Rapp · Karlsruhe |
| 82' | 🟨 | Budu Zivzivadze · Karlsruhe |
| 88' | 🟨 | Felix Higl · Ulm |
| 90' | 🟨 | Philipp Maier · Ulm |
| 90' | 🟨 | Philipp Strompf · Ulm |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcel Franke · Karlsruhe |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marcel Franke · Karlsruhe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 12 |
| 5 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ulm | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Donaustadion |
| coach days | 1207.00 | 1723.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1486.65 | 1560.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.13 | 7.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | — | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| league points | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 15.02 | 15.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.75 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.79 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | — | 1.80 |