← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 5, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: P. Alt
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 73% | 1.31 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.00 |
| Ulm win | 11% | 9.35 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln −1.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Ulm −1.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 1.40 |
| Under | 32% | 3.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Timo Hübers · 1. FC Köln |
| 21' | 🟥 | Max Brandt · Ulm |
| 25' | 🟨 | Timo Hübers · 1. FC Köln |
| 34' | 🟨 | Max Finkgräfe · 1. FC Köln |
| 47' | ⚽ | Luca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln |
| 70' | 🟨 | Leart Paqarada · 1. FC Köln |
| 73' | 🟨 | Luca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln |
| 84' | 🟨 | Dennis Chessa · Ulm |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 3 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Ulm |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | RheinEnergieSTADION |
| 96.00 |
| 1192.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.77 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1546.43 | 1497.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.77 | 31.66 |
| eye test v1 | 2.61 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 52.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | — |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | — |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 21.20 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.36 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.30 | 4.29 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 10.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.50 | — |
| state index | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.31 | -1.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | — |