← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Sep 27, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Hempel
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braunschweig win | 36% | 37% | 2.73 | fair |
| Ulm win | 36% | 25% | 2.74 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 38% | 3.40 | value: +31% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Braunschweig +0 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Ulm +0 | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.87 |
| Over | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Romario Rösch · Ulm |
| 22' | 🟨 | Philipp Strompf · Ulm |
| 39' | ⚽ | Maurice Krattenmacher · Ulm |
| 45' | 🟨 | Paul Jaeckel · Braunschweig |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sven Köhler · Braunschweig |
| 49' | 🟨 | Sven Köhler · Braunschweig |
| 49' | 🟥 | Sven Köhler · Braunschweig |
| 76' | ⚽ | Levente Szabó · Braunschweig |
| 83' | 🟨 | Niklas Tauer · Braunschweig |
| 84' | ⚽ (pen) | Felix Higl · Ulm |
| 87' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ulm | Braunschweig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Donaustadion |
| 🟨 |
| Levente Szabó · Braunschweig |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Röser · Ulm |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1184.00 | 331.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1443.02 | 1406.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.81 | -9.48 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.67 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.56 |
| league points | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 6.23 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.40 | 28.02 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.01 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |