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Braunschweig 2–0 Greuther Furth

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 21, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: L. Erbst

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig win44%2.16
Greuther Furth win30%3.38
Draw26%3.64

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig −0.2552%1.88
Greuther Furth −0.2548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.67
Under41%2.31

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Niko Giesselmann · Greuther Furth
33'⚽Rayan Philippe · Braunschweig
37'🟨Roberto Massimo · Greuther Furth
53'🟨Robin Krausse · Braunschweig
59'🟨Marvin Rittmüller · Braunschweig
59'🟨Nemanja Motika · Greuther Furth
60'⚽Rayan Philippe · Braunschweig
76'🟨Gideon Jung · Greuther Furth
83'🟨Branimir Hrgota · Greuther Furth
84'🟨Robert Ivanov · Braunschweig
90'🟨Dennis Srbeny · Greuther Furth

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
20Shots9
11On target1
8Corners1
13Fouls18
3Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBraunschweigGreuther Furth
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.700.61
cards avg (last 5)2.401.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEintracht-Stadion
coach days
325.00
813.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.11
corner diff avg (last 5)1.000.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.206.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.206.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.462.91
defensive leak (last 5)0.220.06
dominance (last 5)0.430.52
elo1340.331477.68
elo momentum (last 5)-37.9511.06
eye test v1-0.140.82
eye trend v1-0.69-0.41
first sub minute (last 10)54.2052.50
form points (last 5)1.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)3.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.101.76
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.540.84
league points1.0010.00
league rank18.007.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win6.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6080.20
possession avg (last 5)45.0047.60
rest days7.005.98
scorer concentration—0.25
season ppg0.201.67
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.201.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.4016.40
skill v1-0.300.11
sot against avg (last 5)6.405.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.305.60
sot for avg (last 3)2.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.005.80
state index-1.480.15
sterile dominance v1-0.35-0.76
threat rate (last 10)0.260.30
threat rate (last 3)0.210.32
threat rate (last 5)0.260.35
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.60