β 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 Β· Sat, Sep 14, 11:00 AM UTC Β· ref: W. Haslberger
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ulm win | 43% | 2.23 |
| Nurnberg win | 30% | 3.41 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ulm β0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Nurnberg β0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | π¨ | Philipp Maier Β· Ulm |
| 45' | π¨ | Caspar Jander Β· Nurnberg |
| 51' | β½ | Semir TelaloviΔ Β· Ulm |
| 54' | π¨ | Julian Justvan Β· Nurnberg |
| 58' | π¨ | Kanji Okunuki Β· Nurnberg |
| 64' | β½ | Stefanos Tzimas Β· Nurnberg |
| 65' | π¨ | Jens Castrop Β· Nurnberg |
| 67' | π¨ | Danilo Soares Β· Nurnberg |
| 72' | π¨ | Max Brandt Β· Ulm |
| 88' | π¨ | Laurin Ulrich Β· Ulm |
| 90' | π¨ | Christian Ortag Β· Ulm |
| 90' | π¨ | Johannes Reichert Β· Ulm |
| 90' | π¨ | Taylan Duman Β· Nurnberg |
| 90' | π₯ | Stefanos Tzimas Β· Nurnberg |
| 90' | β½ (pen) | Taylan Duman Β· Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ulm | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | β | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.62 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | β | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | β | 2.20 |
| venue | Donaustadion |
| coach days | 1171.00 | 105.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | β | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | β | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | β | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | β | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | β | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | β | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | β | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | β | 0.36 |
| elo | 1468.53 | 1369.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | β | -12.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | β | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | β | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | β | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | β | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | β | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | β | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | β | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | β | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.50 |
| league points | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.75 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.25 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 12.98 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | β | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | β | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | β | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | β | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.25 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.54 | -1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | β | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | β | 0.20 |