← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 14, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: W. Haslberger
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ulm win | 43% | 22% | 2.23 | fair |
| Nurnberg win | 30% | 40% | 3.41 | value: +36% |
| Draw | 27% | 38% | 3.50 | value: +32% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ulm −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Nurnberg −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Philipp Maier · Ulm |
| 45' | 🟨 | Caspar Jander · Nurnberg |
| 51' | ⚽ | Semir Telalović · Ulm |
| 54' | 🟨 | Julian Justvan · Nurnberg |
| 58' | 🟨 | Kanji Okunuki · Nurnberg |
| 64' | ⚽ | Stefanos Tzimas · Nurnberg |
| 65' | 🟨 | Jens Castrop · Nurnberg |
| 67' | 🟨 | Danilo Soares · Nurnberg |
| 72' | 🟨 | Max Brandt · Ulm |
| 88' | 🟨 | Laurin Ulrich · Ulm |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ulm | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.62 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Donaustadion |
| Christian Ortag · Ulm |
| 90' | 🟨 | Johannes Reichert · Ulm |
| 90' | 🟨 | Taylan Duman · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟥 | Stefanos Tzimas · Nurnberg |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Taylan Duman · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1171.00 | 105.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1415.20 | 1429.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.71 | -16.20 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | — | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.50 |
| league points | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.75 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.25 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 12.98 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | -0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.25 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.02 | 24.56 |
| state index | -0.52 | -0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |