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Preußen Münster 3–3 SC Paderborn 07

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Sep 13, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Burda

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SC Paderborn 07 win45%2.13
Preußen Münster win30%3.27
Draw24%3.90

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SC Paderborn 07 +0.2552%1.87
Preußen Münster +0.2548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.62
Under40%2.38

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽Joshua Mees · Preußen Münster
27'🟨Torge Paetow · Preußen Münster
37'⚽Filip Bilbija · SC Paderborn 07
42'🟨Sven Michel · SC Paderborn 07
46'⚽Raphael Obermair · SC Paderborn 07
54'🟨Calvin Brackelmann · SC Paderborn 07
70'🟨Felix Götze · SC Paderborn 07
78'⚽Hólmbert Aron Friðjónsson · Preußen Münster
85'⚽Ilyas Ansah · SC Paderborn 07
87'🟨Lukas Frenkert · Preußen Münster
90'

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
11Shots20
4On target9
7Corners6
6Fouls10
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPreußen MünsterSC Paderborn 07
accuracy ratio (last 10)—0.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.22
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.33
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.00
box share (last 5)0.650.69
cards avg (last 5)—1.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venuePreußen-Stadion
⚽
Joshua Mees · Preußen Münster
coach days1717.001170.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)—0.11
corner diff avg (last 5)—2.20
corners against avg (last 5)—3.80
corners for avg (last 5)—6.00
corners volatility (last 10)—1.58
defensive leak (last 5)—0.10
dominance (last 5)—0.55
elo1460.481513.97
elo momentum (last 5)—25.14
eye test v10.220.12
eye trend v1—-0.31
first sub minute (last 10)60.7555.50
form points (last 5)—11.00
goal diff avg (last 5)—0.80
goals against avg (last 5)—0.80
goals for avg (last 5)—1.60
goals volatility (last 10)—0.95
h2 goals (last 10)—1.10
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.05
keeper form v10.640.78
league points1.008.00
league rank17.005.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win4.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.7581.40
possession avg (last 5)44.5053.00
rest days13.2312.21
scorer concentration—0.33
season ppg0.252.00
shot diff avg (last 5)—2.80
shots for avg (last 5)—15.20
skill v1-0.500.57
sot against avg (last 5)5.504.20
sot for avg (last 10)—4.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.504.20
state index-0.590.38
sterile dominance v1-1.010.20
threat rate (last 10)—0.29
threat rate (last 3)0.360.30
threat rate (last 5)0.330.26
venue ppg (last 5)—2.00