β 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 Β· Sun, Aug 25, 11:30 AM UTC Β· ref: E. Weisbach
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 45% | 2.16 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.41 |
| Ulm win | 27% | 3.60 |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf +0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Ulm +0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.85 |
| Over | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | π¨ | Max Brandt Β· Ulm |
| 40' | π¨ | Emmanuel Iyoha Β· Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 42' | β½ (pen) | Felix Higl Β· Ulm |
| 47' | π¨ | Marcel Sobottka Β· Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 48' | π¨ | Jona Niemiec Β· Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 53' | π¨ | Niklas Kolbe Β· Ulm |
| 81' | β½ | DΕΎenan PejΔinoviΔ Β· Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 82' | β½ | Danny Schmidt Β· Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 85' | π¨ | Matthias Zimmermann Β· Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 90' | π¨ | Noah Mbamba Β· Fortuna Dusseldorf |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ulm | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | β | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | β | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | β | 0.80 |
| venue | Donaustadion |
| coach days | 1151.00 | 936.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | β | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | β | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | β | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | β | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | β | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | β | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | β | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | β | 0.55 |
| elo | 1473.39 | 1604.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | β | 17.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | 1.26 |
| eye trend v1 | β | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | β | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | β | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | β | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | β | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | β | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | β | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | β | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | β | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | β | 0.86 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.50 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 15.79 | 15.02 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | β | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | β | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | 0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | β | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.20 |
| state index | -0.35 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | β | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | β | 2.20 |