← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Aug 25, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: E. Weisbach
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 45% | 62% | 2.16 | value: +33% ⚠ |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | 3.41 | fair |
| Ulm win | 27% | 17% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf +0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Ulm +0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.85 |
| Over | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Max Brandt · Ulm |
| 40' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Iyoha · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Felix Higl · Ulm |
| 47' | 🟨 | Marcel Sobottka · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 48' | 🟨 | Jona Niemiec · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 53' | 🟨 | Niklas Kolbe · Ulm |
| 81' | ⚽ | Dženan Pejčinović · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 82' | ⚽ | Danny Schmidt · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 85' | 🟨 | Matthias Zimmermann · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 90' | 🟨 | Noah Mbamba · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ulm | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Donaustadion |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1151.00 | 936.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1415.21 | 1648.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.95 | 18.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | 1.28 |
| eye trend v1 | — | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | — | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.86 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.50 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 15.79 | 15.02 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 20.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | 0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 26.01 | 27.26 |
| state index | -0.83 | 0.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |