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Preußen Münster 0–1 Kaiserslautern

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 24, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: M. Bacher

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kaiserslautern win38%2.54
Preußen Münster win35%2.74
Draw26%3.63

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kaiserslautern +052%1.88
Preußen Münster +048%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.62
Under40%2.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'🟨Daniel Hanslik · Kaiserslautern
29'🟨Luca Bazzoli · Preußen Münster
33'🟨Marc Lorenz · Preußen Münster
34'🟨Erik Wekesser · Kaiserslautern
56'🟨Jan Gyamerah · Kaiserslautern
68'🟨Etienne Amenyido · Preußen Münster
85'⚽Ragnar Ache · Kaiserslautern
89'🟨Marlon Ritter · Kaiserslautern
90'🟨Niko Koulis · Preußen Münster

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots8
7On target5
4Corners2
15Fouls18
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPreußen MünsterKaiserslautern
accuracy ratio (last 10)—0.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.41
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.00
box share (last 5)0.780.60
cards avg (last 5)—1.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venuePreußen-Stadion
coach days1697.0054.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)—0.15
corner diff avg (last 5)—0.00
corners against avg (last 5)—5.40
corners for avg (last 5)—5.40
corners volatility (last 10)—1.96
defensive leak (last 5)—0.14
dominance (last 5)—0.45
elo1484.091429.45
elo momentum (last 5)—36.21
eye test v1-0.110.47
eye trend v1—0.19
first sub minute (last 10)—58.30
form points (last 5)—10.00
goal diff avg (last 5)—1.40
goals against avg (last 5)—1.40
goals for avg (last 5)—2.80
goals volatility (last 10)—1.45
h2 goals (last 10)—0.50
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.05
keeper form v10.700.73
matches since blank0.0013.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.0081.00
possession avg (last 5)49.0050.60
rest days12.9814.77
season ppg0.502.00
shot diff avg (last 5)—-3.60
shots for avg (last 5)—12.40
skill v1-0.180.38
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)—4.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.006.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.005.20
state index-0.290.11
sterile dominance v1-0.330.15
threat rate (last 10)—0.31
threat rate (last 3)0.280.25
threat rate (last 5)0.280.25
venue ppg (last 5)—1.20