β 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 Β· Sun, Aug 4, 11:30 AM UTC Β· ref: R. SchrΓΆder
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 38% | 46% | 2.54 | value: +16% |
| Ulm win | 34% | 30% | 2.82 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.51 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Kaiserslautern +0 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Ulm +0 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.76 |
| Under | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand