← EFL League One 2025-26 · Fri, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: I. Searle
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 63% | 1.46 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.33 |
| Peterboro win | 15% | 6.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton −1 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Peterboro −1 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.53 |
| Under | 39% | 2.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Jake Richards · Luton |
| 33' | 🟨 | Josh Keeley · Luton |
| 50' | ⚽ | Jordan Clark · Luton |
| 75' | ⚽ | — · Peterboro |
| 80' | 🟨 | Kal Naismith · Luton |
| 80' | 🟨 | Kyrell Lisbie · Peterboro |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kasey Palmer · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 | David Kamara · Peterboro |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 21 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Peterboro |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days | 245.00 | 245.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1508.77 | 1457.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.99 | 1.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | 0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.93 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| league points | 55.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 13.06 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 26.46 | 23.27 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.64 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |