← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Wed, Apr 22, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Toner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 63% | 1.46 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.33 |
| Preston win | 16% | 5.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham −1 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Preston −1 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.67 |
| Under | 43% | 2.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 16' | ⚽ | Ibrahim Osman · Birmingham |
| 25' | ⚽ | Andrew Hughes · Preston |
| 45' | 🟨 | Andrija Vukčević · Preston |
| 72' | 🟨 | Andrew Moran · Preston |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Preston |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park |
| coach days | 690.00 | 629.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1529.72 | 1422.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.69 | 9.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| league points | 57.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.68 | -0.46 |
| solidity v1 | 0.57 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.44 | — |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.74 | 1.29 |