← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Fri, Mar 20, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Hallam
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Preston win | 40% | 2.30 |
| Stoke win | 32% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Preston −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Sorba Thomas · Stoke |
| 15' | ⚽ | Alfie Devine · Preston |
| 26' | 🟨 | Alfie Devine · Preston |
| 34' | 🟨 | Benjamin Whiteman · Preston |
| 39' | 🟨 | Million Manhoef · Stoke |
| 57' | ⚽ | Milutin Osmajić · Preston |
| 60' | ⚽ | Alfie Devine · Preston |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Preston | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Deepdale |
| coach days | 596.00 | 443.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 8.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1413.53 | 1451.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -48.99 | 5.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | 0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.77 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | — |
| league points | 49.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.34 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.76 | -0.38 |
| solidity v1 | -1.43 | -0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 28.32 |
| state index | -1.36 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | -0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.19 | 1.66 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.66 |