← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Wed, Mar 11, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry win | 62% | 1.46 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.50 |
| Preston win | 17% | 5.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry −1 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Preston −1 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.67 |
| Under | 43% | 2.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Tatsuhiro Sakamoto · Coventry |
| 34' | ⚽ | Brandon Thomas-Asante · Coventry |
| 50' | ⚽ (pen) | Matt Grimes · Coventry |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 5 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Coventry | Preston |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Coventry Building Society Arena |
| coach days | 495.00 | 587.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1753.32 | 1564.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.57 | -44.83 |
| eye test v1 | 0.45 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.64 |
| league points | 74.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 4.21 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.06 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | -0.52 |
| solidity v1 | 0.78 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.36 | 27.68 |
| state index | 1.19 | -0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.56 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 0.81 |