← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Toner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 43% | 2.15 |
| Preston win | 30% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Preston +0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Millwall +0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Ryan Leonard · Millwall |
| 57' | 🟨 | Ryan Leonard · Millwall |
| 65' | 🟨 | Callum Lang · Preston |
| 74' | 🟨 | Lewis Gibson · Preston |
| 78' | 🟨 | Andrew Hughes · Preston |
| 80' | 🟨 | Casper De Norre · Millwall |
| 90' | ⚽ | Luke Cundle · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Preston | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.82 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Deepdale |
| coach days | 576.00 | 454.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1599.47 | 1665.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.76 | 15.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| league points | 49.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.08 | -0.20 |
| solidity v1 | 0.11 | 0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.85 | 26.47 |
| state index | -0.08 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 0.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.54 |