← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Whitestone
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 37% | 2.45 |
| Preston win | 33% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford +0 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Preston +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over | 43% | 2.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Lewis Dobbin · Preston |
| 55' | ⚽ | Othmane Maamma · Watford |
| 57' | ⚽ (og) | Odeluga Offiah · Watford |
| 70' | ⚽ | Milutin Osmajić · Preston |
| 81' | 🟨 | Lewis Gibson · Preston |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jeremy Petris · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 20 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Preston | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Deepdale |
| coach days | 562.00 | 44.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1474.56 | 1449.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.15 | -26.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| league points | 47.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.98 | -0.07 |
| solidity v1 | -1.29 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | — | 27.96 |
| state index | -0.64 | -0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.01 | 1.07 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.95 |