← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Farai Hallam, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Preston win | 42% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.10 |
| Derby win | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby −0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Preston −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.62 |
| Over | 41% | 2.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Bobby Clark · Derby |
| 40' | 🟨 | David Ozoh · Derby |
| 57' | 🟨 | Ben Brereton Díaz · Derby |
| 63' | 🟨 | Callum Elder · Derby |
| 66' | 🟨 | Lewis Dobbin · Preston |
| 82' | ⚽ | Patrick Agyemang · Derby |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jordan Thompson · Preston |
| 87' | 🟨 | Liam Thompson · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Preston | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Deepdale |
| coach days |
| 534.00 |
| 350.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.35 | 3.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1510.71 | 1431.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.89 | 0.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.62 |
| league points | 43.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.80 | -0.87 |
| solidity v1 | 0.49 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | — | 25.89 |
| state index | 0.26 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.23 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.97 |