← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City win | 53% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 |
| Preston win | 22% | 4.46 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City −0.5 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Preston −0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.83 |
| Over | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Lewis Dobbin · Preston |
| 34' | 🟨 | Jordan Storey · Preston |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jordan Thompson · Preston |
| 70' | ⚽ | Alfie Devine · Preston |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bristol City | Preston |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Ashton Gate Stadium |
| coach days | 3.00 | 521.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1523.14 | 1491.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.66 | 9.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.60 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.79 |
| league points | 39.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | -1.06 |
| solidity v1 | 0.51 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.38 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 0.74 |