← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Nov 25, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: James Bell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 53% | 1.82 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.60 |
| Preston win | 20% | 4.81 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Preston −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.69 |
| Over | 43% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Daniel Jebbison · Preston |
| 37' | 🟨 | Alfie Devine · Preston |
| 45' | ⚽ | Mamadou Doumbia · Watford |
| 71' | 🟨 | Hector Kyprianou · Watford |
| 84' | 🟨 | Andrew Hughes · Preston |
| 87' | 🟨 | Stefán Teitur Þórðarson · Preston |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nestory Irankunda · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Liam Lindsay · Preston |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Preston |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.59 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 116.00 | 481.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1438.29 | 1468.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.27 | 19.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.73 |
| league points | 23.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | -0.81 |
| solidity v1 | 0.53 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.96 | — |
| state index | 0.17 | -0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.38 |