← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 8, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Stephen Martin, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 43% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
| Preston win | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Preston −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Millwall −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.53 |
| Over | 38% | 2.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Zak Sturge · Millwall |
| 15' | ⚽ | Michael Smith · Preston |
| 21' | 🟨 | Benjamin Whiteman · Preston |
| 36' | ⚽ | Mihailo Ivanovic · Millwall |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jake Cooper · Millwall |
| 87' | 🟨 | Liam Lindsay · Preston |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 10 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Preston |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days | 342.00 | 464.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1505.09 | 1479.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.11 | 16.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| league points | 24.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 2.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | -0.34 |
| solidity v1 | 0.27 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 1.14 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.45 |