← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Matt Donohue, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 57% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.00 |
| Preston win | 20% | 4.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton −0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Preston −0.75 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | ⚽ | Lewis Dobbin · Preston |
| 41' | 🟨 | Harrison Armstrong · Preston |
| 66' | 🟨 | Thierry Small · Preston |
| 67' | 🟨 | Ryan Manning · Southampton |
| 83' | 🟨 | Odeluga Offiah · Preston |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mads Frøkjær-Jensen · Preston |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Preston |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 123.00 | 457.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1363.67 | 1457.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.63 | 14.92 |
| eye test v1 | 1.00 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| league points | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 7.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.04 | -0.06 |
| solidity v1 | 0.03 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.94 | — |
| state index | -0.52 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.01 | 1.51 |