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Preston 3–2 Sheffield United

← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Fri, Oct 24, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Farai Hallam, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Preston win36%2.80
Sheffield United win34%2.85
Draw30%3.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Preston +051%1.98
Sheffield United +049%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.63
Over41%2.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Andre Brooks · Sheffield United
16'⚽Callum O'Hare · Sheffield United
29'🟨Odeluga Offiah · Preston
34'🟨Jaïro Riedewald · Sheffield United
45'⚽Lewis Dobbin · Preston
46'⚽ (og)Japhet Tanganga · Preston
58'⚽Daniel Jebbison · Preston
83'🟨Stefán Teitur Þórðarson · Preston
85'🟨Jordan Storey · Preston
90'🟨Harrison Armstrong · Preston

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
15Shots12
3On target3
2Corners4
14Fouls11
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPrestonSheffield United
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.24
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.350.10
box share (last 5)0.650.68
cards avg (last 5)1.601.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueDeepdale
coach days449.00693.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.602.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.804.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.206.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.021.84
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.09
dominance (last 5)0.530.50
elo1448.681467.91
elo momentum (last 5)6.7911.44
eye test v1-0.09-0.13
eye trend v10.320.94
first sub minute (last 10)65.6063.00
form points (last 5)5.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.25
keeper form v10.730.71
league points16.009.00
league rank11.0021.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.6074.80
possession avg (last 5)51.6048.60
rest days3.013.01
scorer concentration0.180.50
season ppg1.450.82
shot diff avg (last 5)1.400.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.8011.20
skill v1-0.12-0.20
solidity v10.190.87
sot against avg (last 5)4.002.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.602.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.00
squad age—27.67
state index-0.12-0.01
sterile dominance v1-0.14-0.09
threat rate (last 10)0.230.21
threat rate (last 3)0.290.29
threat rate (last 5)0.270.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.361.10
xg for avg (last 5)1.281.43