← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Oct 21, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Lewis Smith, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 37% | 2.56 |
| Preston win | 32% | 2.98 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham +0 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Preston +0 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.68 |
| Over | 40% | 2.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Keshi Anderson · Birmingham |
| 10' | 🟨 | Michael Smith · Preston |
| 12' | 🟨 | Bright Osayi-Samuel · Birmingham |
| 33' | ⚽ | Phil Neumann · Birmingham |
| 58' | 🟨 | Tomoki Iwata · Birmingham |
| 63' | 🟨 | Marc Leonard · Birmingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thierry Small · Preston |
| 90' | 🟨 | Seung Ho Paik · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Preston | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Deepdale |
| coach days | 446.00 | 507.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1454.78 | 1658.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.14 | -44.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.30 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.75 |
| league points | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | 0.29 |
| solidity v1 | 0.36 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 28.61 |
| state index | 0.19 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.39 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.47 |