← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lewis Smith, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 40% | 2.43 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
| Preston win | 30% | 3.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Preston −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Derby −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.53 |
| Over | 37% | 2.72 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Alfie Devine · Preston |
| 55' | 🟨 | Dion Sanderson · Derby |
| 72' | 🟨 | Daniel Iversen · Preston |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ebou Adams · Derby |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michael Smith · Preston |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Preston |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Pride Park |
| coach days | 231.00 | 415.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1380.56 | 1431.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.68 | 12.47 |
| eye test v1 | -1.18 | -1.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.50 | 67.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| league points | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.36 | -1.00 |
| solidity v1 | -1.17 | 0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.33 | — |
| state index | -0.77 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.83 | 1.27 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 1.18 |