← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 13, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: T. Kirk
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 41% | 2.34 |
| Preston win | 30% | 3.25 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.36 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Preston +0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Middlesbrough +0.25 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.76 |
| Over | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Morgan Whittaker · Middlesbrough |
| 11' | 🟨 | Alfie Jones · Middlesbrough |
| 22' | ⚽ | Lewis Dobbin · Preston |
| 58' | 🟨 | Andrew Hughes · Preston |
| 72' | ⚽ | Matt Targett · Middlesbrough |
| 88' | ⚽ | Jordan Storey · Preston |
| 90' | 🟨 | Darragh Lenihan · Middlesbrough |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sontje Hansen · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Preston | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Deepdale |
| coach days | 408.00 | 43.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1431.50 | 1496.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.50 | 38.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.60 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | — |
| league points | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 13.90 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.09 | 0.10 |
| solidity v1 | 0.72 | 1.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 28.62 |
| state index | -0.12 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.29 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 0.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.08 |