⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Preston 1–0 Ipswich

← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ipswich win44%2.15
Draw28%3.44
Preston win27%3.60

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ipswich +0.2552%1.85
Preston +0.2548%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.74
Over45%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽ (pen)Milutin Osmajić · Preston
26'🟨Andrew Hughes · Preston
40'🟨Ben Johnson · Ipswich
45'🟨Pol Valentín · Preston
82'🟨Milutin Osmajić · Preston
84'🟨Thierry Small · Preston
84'🟨Kasey McAteer · Ipswich
90'🟨Alistair McCann · Preston
90'🟨Stefán Teitur Þórðarson · Preston

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
2Shots15
1On target2
3Corners6
14Fouls5
6Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPrestonIpswich
accuracy ratio (last 10)—0.20
accuracy ratio (last 3)—0.17
accuracy ratio (last 5)—0.19
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
box share (last 5)—0.74
cards avg (last 5)3.001.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueDeepdale
coach days387.001361.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.06
corner diff avg (last 5)0.201.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.402.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.603.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.171.48
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.15
dominance (last 5)0.550.53
elo1430.681423.12
elo momentum (last 5)-5.31-22.66
eye test v10.47-0.61
eye trend v10.830.11
first sub minute (last 10)65.0060.70
form points (last 5)5.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.630.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.15
keeper form v10.57—
matches since blank9.003.00
matches since clean sheet13.0020.00
matches since win0.0010.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.8081.80
possession avg (last 5)47.4047.80
rest days7.006.13
season ppg2.001.00
shot diff avg (last 5)2.602.00
shots for avg (last 5)15.8013.20
skill v1-0.300.06
solidity v10.220.35
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.202.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.202.40
squad age—26.65
state index-0.28-0.99
sterile dominance v1-1.21-0.18
threat rate (last 10)0.250.27
threat rate (last 3)0.400.25
threat rate (last 5)0.360.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.371.03
xg for avg (last 5)1.651.20