← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Wed, Apr 2, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 43% | 2.27 |
| Draw | 33% | 2.95 |
| Preston win | 25% | 3.93 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby −0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Preston −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 70% | 1.38 |
| Over | 30% | 3.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Liam Thompson · Derby |
| 48' | ⚽ | Craig Forsyth · Derby |
| 52' | ⚽ | Jerry Yates · Derby |
| 72' | 🟨 | Robbie Brady · Preston |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mads Frøkjær-Jensen · Preston |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 5 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Preston |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Pride Park Stadium |
| coach days | 60.00 | 244.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1336.13 | 1477.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.65 | -4.98 |
| eye test v1 | -1.43 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 51.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | — |
| league points | 38.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.80 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 18.16 | 18.16 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.87 | -0.41 |
| solidity v1 | 0.15 | 0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.33 | — |
| state index | -0.18 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.94 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.28 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 1.22 |