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Sheffield United 1–0 Preston

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Busby

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sheffield United win56%1.70
Draw26%3.77
Preston win18%5.53

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sheffield United −0.7551%1.92
Preston −0.7549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.74
Over45%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'🟨Stefán Teitur Þórðarson · Preston
56'⚽Tyrese Campbell · Sheffield United
61'🟨Ryan Porteous · Preston
69'🟨Sam Greenwood · Preston
90'🟨Jack Robinson · Sheffield United
90'🟨Lewis Gibson · Preston

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots8
4On target3
8Corners3
13Fouls14
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSheffield UnitedPreston
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
box share (last 5)0.640.71
cards avg (last 5)2.601.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBramall Lane
coach days463.00219.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.005.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.691.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.05
dominance (last 5)0.440.48
elo1540.281471.31
elo momentum (last 5)19.56-0.69
eye test v10.03-0.79
eye trend v1-0.320.32
first sub minute (last 10)55.2052.80
form points (last 5)12.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.840.74
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.35
keeper form v10.730.78
league points75.0043.00
league rank2.0016.00
matches since blank6.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2075.40
possession avg (last 5)50.2049.20
rest days7.003.80
scorer concentration0.170.23
season ppg2.141.23
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.000.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.8011.20
skill v10.05-0.39
solidity v1-0.591.06
sot against avg (last 5)5.203.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.402.80
squad age25.95—
state index0.29-0.24
sterile dominance v10.070.08
threat rate (last 10)0.260.23
threat rate (last 3)0.220.27
threat rate (last 5)0.240.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.720.86
xg for avg (last 5)1.561.03