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Bristol City 1–1 Hull

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Linington

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bristol City win46%2.10
Draw29%3.40
Hull win25%3.95

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hull −0.553%1.83
Bristol City −0.547%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.68
Over43%2.28

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽João Pedro · Hull
14'🟥João Pedro · Hull
53'🟨Alfie Jones · Hull
54'⚽ (pen)Anis Mehmeti · Bristol City
58'🟨Cameron Pring · Bristol City
78'🟨Steven Alzate · Hull
90'🟨Cody Drameh · Hull

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
26Shots5
10On target1
14Corners1
9Fouls5
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBristol CityHull
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.760.52
cards avg (last 5)0.801.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAshton Gate Stadium
coach days493.0097.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.08
corner diff avg (last 5)3.00-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)2.605.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.604.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.752.10
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.06
dominance (last 5)0.580.45
elo1518.731412.36
elo momentum (last 5)17.7813.71
eye test v10.37-0.51
eye trend v10.23-0.27
first sub minute (last 10)57.1053.10
form points (last 5)10.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.06
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v1—0.71
league points52.0036.00
league rank8.0020.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2079.20
possession avg (last 5)50.2045.40
rest days3.803.80
scorer concentration0.240.17
season ppg1.491.03
shot diff avg (last 5)4.20-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.408.80
skill v10.04-0.38
solidity v10.711.03
sot against avg (last 5)3.202.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.40
squad age—23.30
state index0.55-0.17
sterile dominance v1-0.290.11
threat rate (last 10)0.270.24
threat rate (last 3)0.270.16
threat rate (last 5)0.280.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.200.94
xg for avg (last 5)1.550.93