← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 48% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.30 |
| Preston win | 23% | 4.35 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Preston −0.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Luton −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.57 |
| Over | 38% | 2.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Jordan Storey · Preston |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jacob Brown · Luton |
| 55' | 🟨 | Thomas Holmes · Luton |
| 62' | 🟨 | Carlton Morris · Luton |
| 69' | 🟨 | Andrew Hughes · Preston |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 2 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Preston |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days | 17.00 | 170.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1395.52 | 1461.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.55 | -2.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 25.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 11.79 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.68 | -0.38 |
| solidity v1 | 0.09 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.07 | — |
| state index | -0.66 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 0.92 |