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West Brom 3–1 Preston

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Wed, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Madley

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
West Brom win49%1.95
Draw28%3.40
Preston win23%4.43

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Preston −0.551%1.94
West Brom −0.549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.68
Over43%2.29

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽Josh Maja · West Brom
35'⚽Callum Styles · West Brom
40'⚽Josh Maja · West Brom
42'🟨Stefán Teitur Þórðarson · Preston
56'🟨Alistair McCann · Preston
70'⚽Ryan Ledson · Preston
71'🟨Jack Whatmough · Preston
89'🟨Benjamin Whiteman · Preston
90'🟨Kyle Bartley · West Brom

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
12Shots10
7On target5
3Corners5
12Fouls14
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricWest BromPreston
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
box share (last 5)0.580.59
cards avg (last 5)1.802.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueThe Hawthorns
coach days0.00153.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.24
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-3.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.002.94
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.05
dominance (last 5)0.500.35
elo1495.101474.01
elo momentum (last 5)3.5326.36
eye test v1-0.07-0.86
eye trend v10.29-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)56.8057.30
form points (last 5)7.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.700.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.30
keeper form v10.730.68
league points36.0029.00
league rank8.0013.00
matches since blank7.007.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.0075.20
possession avg (last 5)57.2043.40
rest days3.103.10
scorer concentration0.350.20
season ppg1.501.21
shot diff avg (last 5)0.20-6.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.208.60
skill v10.63-0.87
solidity v10.340.42
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.602.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.20
squad age27.51—
state index-0.04-0.07
sterile dominance v10.770.02
threat rate (last 10)0.220.19
threat rate (last 3)0.240.12
threat rate (last 5)0.230.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.271.20
xg for avg (last 5)1.200.71