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Preston 1–1 Leeds

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 14, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Busby

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leeds win60%1.62
Draw24%4.20
Preston win16%6.24

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Preston +153%1.85
Leeds +147%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.77
Over45%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Brad Potts · Preston
32'🟨Benjamin Whiteman · Preston
39'🟨Daniel James · Leeds
58'🟨Milutin Osmajić · Preston
88'🟨Liam Lindsay · Preston
90'⚽ (og)Jack Whatmough · Leeds

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
5Shots18
2On target4
2Corners8
16Fouls7
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPrestonLeeds
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.530.68
cards avg (last 5)2.401.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueDeepdale
coach days135.00532.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d5.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.15
corner diff avg (last 5)0.205.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.602.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.807.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.662.77
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.11
dominance (last 5)0.550.69
elo1462.581567.27
elo momentum (last 5)14.5021.60
eye test v1-0.721.02
eye trend v10.41-0.22
first sub minute (last 10)56.3058.70
form points (last 5)7.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.45
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.45
keeper form v10.660.69
league points22.0041.00
league rank16.002.00
matches since blank3.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.8086.40
possession avg (last 5)49.8060.60
rest days2.703.69
scorer concentration0.240.22
season ppg1.102.05
shot diff avg (last 5)1.808.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.0016.20
skill v1-0.621.37
solidity v11.120.92
sot against avg (last 5)2.802.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.406.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.406.20
squad age—26.03
state index-0.070.53
sterile dominance v10.140.71
threat rate (last 10)0.250.29
threat rate (last 3)0.260.27
threat rate (last 5)0.220.27
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.00
xg against avg (last 5)0.921.00
xg for avg (last 5)0.711.86