← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 14, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry win | 56% | 49% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.10 | fair |
| Hull win | 20% | 26% | 4.90 | value: +27% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Hull −0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Ivor Pandur · Hull |
| 43' | 🟨 | Ephron Mason-Clark · Coventry |
| 43' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Hull |
| 45' | 🟨 | João Pedro · Hull |
| 52' | ⚽ | Ephron Mason-Clark · Coventry |
| 54' | 🟨 | Luis Binks · Coventry |
| 64' | 🟨 | Charlie Hughes · Hull |
| 69' | 🟨 | Norman Bassette · Coventry |
| 72' | ⚽ | Jack Rudoni · Coventry |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Coventry | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | The Coventry Building Society Arena |
| coach days | 43.00 | 13.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 1.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1605.01 | 1552.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.49 | -44.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| league points | 21.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 2.69 | 2.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.00 | 0.81 |
| solidity v1 | 1.11 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.54 | 25.19 |
| state index | -0.14 | -1.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.84 | 0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 162.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.79 | 1.05 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 1.28 |