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Cardiff 0–2 Preston

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Wed, Dec 11, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Linington

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cardiff win40%2.40
Draw31%3.10
Preston win29%3.41

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Preston −0.2552%1.90
Cardiff −0.2548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under62%1.58
Over38%2.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

33'🟨Perry Ng · Cardiff
33'🟨Mads Frøkjær-Jensen · Preston
37'🟨Sam Greenwood · Preston
48'⚽ (og)Calum Chambers · Preston
74'🟨Alistair McCann · Preston
76'🟨Kaine Kesler-Hayden · Preston
81'🟨Joe Ralls · Cardiff
90'🟨Milutin Osmajić · Preston
90'⚽Milutin Osmajić · Preston

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots14
4On target4
7Corners2
11Fouls16
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCardiffPreston
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.00—
box share (last 5)0.550.55
cards avg (last 5)1.401.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCardiff City Stadium
coach days101.00132.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.08
corner diff avg (last 5)2.600.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.406.40
corners for avg (last 5)7.006.40
corners volatility (last 10)4.832.76
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.11
dominance (last 5)0.550.50
elo1385.941447.65
elo momentum (last 5)-37.04-11.16
eye test v10.29-0.83
eye trend v10.090.33
first sub minute (last 10)58.0057.40
form points (last 5)2.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.510.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.20—
keeper form v10.750.74
league points17.0019.00
league rank21.0018.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet6.002.00
matches since win5.009.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.2075.40
possession avg (last 5)53.4053.60
rest days11.204.30
scorer concentration0.330.25
season ppg0.941.00
shot diff avg (last 5)3.60-0.80
shots for avg (last 5)14.6010.40
skill v10.23-0.35
solidity v1-0.791.03
sot against avg (last 5)5.402.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.503.20
sot for avg (last 3)6.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.00
squad age28.24—
state index-0.84-0.78
sterile dominance v10.210.53
threat rate (last 10)0.300.24
threat rate (last 3)0.310.21
threat rate (last 5)0.280.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.690.94
xg for avg (last 5)0.930.80