← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Webb
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Preston win | 40% | 2.45 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.16 |
| Derby win | 30% | 3.31 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby −0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Preston −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.55 |
| Over | 37% | 2.63 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Sam Greenwood · Preston |
| 29' | ⚽ | Jerry Yates · Derby |
| 58' | 🟨 | Liam Thompson · Derby |
| 62' | 🟨 | Sam Greenwood · Preston |
| 87' | 🟨 | Alistair McCann · Preston |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcus Harness · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Preston | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Deepdale |
| coach days | 114.00 | 814.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.40 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1448.08 | 1322.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.23 | 24.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.61 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.53 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -0.96 |
| solidity v1 | 0.12 | 0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.73 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 0.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 0.78 |