← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Nield
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston win | 37% | 40% | 2.64 | value: +7% |
| Bristol City win | 33% | 32% | 2.99 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Preston +0 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Bristol City +0 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.69 |
| Over | 43% | 2.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Mads Frøkjær-Jensen · Preston |
| 6' | ⚽ | Yu Hirakawa · Bristol City |
| 40' | 🟨 | Alistair McCann · Preston |
| 48' | ⚽ | Sam Greenwood · Preston |
| 51' | ⚽ | Nahki Wells · Bristol City |
| 62' | 🟨 | Brad Potts · Preston |
| 65' | 🟨 | Nahki Wells · Bristol City |
| 70' | 🟨 | Haydon Roberts · Bristol City |
| 76' | 🟨 | Duane Holmes · Preston |
| 80' | 🟨 | Zak Vyner · Bristol City |
| 81' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 20 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Preston | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Deepdale |
| ⚽ |
| Max Bird · Bristol City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 93.00 | 367.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1571.70 | 1611.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.75 | 18.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 48.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.61 |
| league points | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 7.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | -0.71 |
| solidity v1 | 0.92 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.20 | 26.10 |
| state index | 0.58 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.07 | -1.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 1.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.91 | 1.23 |