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Plymouth 3–3 Preston

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Davies

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Preston win40%2.45
Plymouth win31%3.16
Draw29%3.32

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Plymouth +0.2553%1.85
Preston +0.2547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.81
Over47%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Ryan Ledson · Preston
16'⚽Sam Greenwood · Preston
41'🟨Kaine Kesler-Hayden · Preston
45'⚽Mads Frøkjær-Jensen · Preston
46'🟨Sam Greenwood · Preston
48'⚽Brad Potts · Preston
55'⚽Frederick Issaka · Plymouth
82'⚽Andre Gray · Plymouth
90'⚽Morgan Whittaker · Plymouth

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
12Shots16
6On target8
2Corners1
12Fouls16
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPlymouthPreston
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.00—
box share (last 5)0.680.77
cards avg (last 5)1.602.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHome Park
coach days178.0086.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.05—
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-6.002.20
corners against avg (last 5)8.404.20
corners for avg (last 5)2.406.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.882.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.09
dominance (last 5)0.450.52
elo1526.761472.82
elo momentum (last 5)-32.149.56
eye test v1-0.56-0.22
eye trend v1-0.08-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)60.2061.70
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.30—
keeper form v10.610.68
league points11.0013.00
league rank21.0015.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet11.001.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.0073.80
possession avg (last 5)53.2046.00
rest days2.803.80
scorer concentration0.380.22
season ppg1.001.18
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.801.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.6012.20
skill v10.20-0.21
solidity v1-0.380.64
sot against avg (last 5)5.203.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.40
state index-0.36-0.09
sterile dominance v10.65-0.52
threat rate (last 10)0.240.21
threat rate (last 3)0.200.28
threat rate (last 5)0.220.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.361.10
xg for avg (last 5)0.911.69