← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Tue, Oct 22, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: W. Finnie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich win | 37% | 44% | 2.62 | value: +15% |
| Preston win | 34% | 30% | 2.93 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.29 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich +0 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Preston +0 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.80 |
| Over | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ (pen) | Sam Greenwood · Preston |
| 12' | ⚽ | Duane Holmes · Preston |
| 27' | 🟨 | Callum Doyle · Norwich |
| 30' | 🟨 | Benjamin Whiteman · Preston |
| 32' | 🟨 | Kenny McLean · Norwich |
| 36' | 🟨 | Jordan Storey · Preston |
| 45' | ⚽ | Borja Sainz · Norwich |
| 61' | ⚽ | Shane Duffy · Norwich |
| 64' | 🟨 | Emiliano Marcondes · Norwich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Preston | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Deepdale |
| coach days | 82.00 | 113.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1569.46 | 1677.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.05 | 38.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | 0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | — |
| league points | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | 1.41 |
| solidity v1 | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.27 | 25.30 |
| state index | 0.51 | 0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 2.28 |