← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 5, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: T. Nield
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich win | 47% | 52% | 2.10 | value: +9% |
| Hull win | 27% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.83 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hull −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Norwich −0.5 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.66 |
| Under | 41% | 2.33 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Mohamed Belloumi · Hull |
| 16' | ⚽ | Marcelino Núñez · Norwich |
| 20' | ⚽ | Josh Sargent · Norwich |
| 24' | 🟨 | Marcelino Núñez · Norwich |
| 57' | 🟨 | Cody Drameh · Hull |
| 66' | ⚽ | Kaide Gordon · Norwich |
| 76' | 🟨 | João Pedro · Hull |
| 77' | 🟨 | Oscar Schwartau · Norwich |
| 78' | ⚽ | Borja Sainz · Norwich |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kenny McLean · Norwich |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 16 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norwich | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Carrow Road |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lewie Coyle · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 96.00 | 96.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.22 | 3.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1664.45 | 1643.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.05 | 15.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| league points | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.55 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.79 | 0.76 |
| solidity v1 | 0.37 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.19 | 25.37 |
| state index | 0.54 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 167.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.48 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.42 |