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Middlesbrough 1–1 Preston

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Nield

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Middlesbrough win63%1.55
Draw22%4.50
Preston win15%7.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Middlesbrough −151%1.92
Preston −149%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.70
Under43%2.24

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Tommy Conway · Middlesbrough
33'🟨Jack Whatmough · Preston
36'🟨Jordan Storey · Preston
43'⚽Mads Frøkjær-Jensen · Preston
60'🟨Andrew Hughes · Preston
74'🟨Freddie Woodman · Preston
86'🟨Robbie Brady · Preston

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
16Shots6
6On target2
9Corners2
6Fouls21
0Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMiddlesbroughPreston
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.650.61
cards avg (last 5)0.802.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRiverside Stadium
coach days714.0044.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.05
corner diff avg (last 5)3.40-3.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.206.20
corners for avg (last 5)7.602.80
corners volatility (last 10)4.232.38
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.18
dominance (last 5)0.680.36
elo1684.451541.14
elo momentum (last 5)12.82-41.32
eye test v10.95-1.26
eye trend v1-0.240.43
first sub minute (last 10)70.9059.20
form points (last 5)10.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-1.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.151.26
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.30
keeper form v1—0.63
league points7.003.00
league rank10.0019.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.6076.80
possession avg (last 5)56.2045.40
rest days14.1014.00
season ppg1.750.75
shot diff avg (last 5)10.00-5.60
shots for avg (last 5)18.207.60
skill v11.17-0.70
solidity v11.26-1.02
sot against avg (last 5)2.404.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.302.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.202.20
squad age24.1123.10
state index0.89-0.92
sterile dominance v10.010.39
threat rate (last 10)0.290.17
threat rate (last 3)0.300.15
threat rate (last 5)0.330.17
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.00
xg against avg (last 5)0.831.97
xg for avg (last 5)2.060.57