← Primeira Liga 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 27, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Macedo
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 88% | 88% | 1.08 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 10% | 13.15 | value: +29% |
| AVS win | 4% | 2% | 30.91 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AVS −2.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica −2.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 74% | 67% | 1.29 | fair |
| Under | 26% | 33% | 3.76 | value: +25% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 10 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica |